Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
